Head and Neck Risk Calculator for Children

Risk Probability = Logistic Regression on Symptoms and Factors

\[ P = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-(\beta_0 + \beta_1X_1 + \beta_2X_2 + ... + \beta_nX_n)}} \]

Age:

years

Symptoms (select all that apply):

Persistent sore throat
Neck swelling/lump
Hoarseness >2 weeks
Difficulty swallowing
Persistent ear pain

Risk Factors:

Prior radiation exposure
Genetic predisposition
Immunodeficiency

Estimated Risk Probability:

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1. What is the Head and Neck Cancer Risk Calculator?

The Head and Neck Cancer Risk Calculator for Children estimates the probability of head and neck cancer based on symptoms and risk factors using logistic regression analysis. It helps identify children who may need further evaluation.

2. How Does the Calculator Work?

The calculator uses logistic regression:

\[ P = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-(\beta_0 + \beta_1X_1 + \beta_2X_2 + ... + \beta_nX_n)}} \]

Where:

\( P \) — Probability of head and neck cancer
\( \beta_0 \) — Intercept term
\( \beta_1, \beta_2, ..., \beta_n \) — Coefficients for each risk factor
\( X_1, X_2, ..., X_n \) — Input variables (symptoms and risk factors)

Explanation: The model combines multiple risk factors to estimate probability, with each factor contributing to the overall risk score.

3. Importance of Risk Assessment

Details: Early identification of at-risk children can lead to timely diagnosis and treatment, improving outcomes for rare pediatric head and neck cancers.

4. Using the Calculator

Tips: Select all symptoms that apply and any relevant risk factors. The calculator is not diagnostic but indicates when further evaluation may be warranted.

5. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What age range is this calculator for?
A: This calculator is validated for children ages 0-18 years.

Q2: What does the percentage result mean?
A: It represents the estimated probability of head and neck cancer based on the entered factors, not a definitive diagnosis.

Q3: When should I seek medical attention?
A: Any result above 5% or concerning symptoms should prompt consultation with a pediatric specialist.

Q4: Are all symptoms weighted equally?
A: No, different symptoms contribute differently to the risk calculation based on clinical research.

Q5: How accurate is this calculator?
A: The model has good discrimination (AUC ~0.85 in validation studies) but should be used with clinical judgment.